#2 Cadamosto (9-2) is an obvious danger for Coolmore if he runs as well on turf as he did on the all-weather, but will take a stand against at the price. #13 Project Dante (12-1) and #7 Korker (20-1) both have positive soft-ground form, with the latter an impressive recent winner at Carlisle. #3 Go Bears Go (12-1) made all in taking a course-and-distance maiden first out, but likely to be coming from off the pace this time with the Wesley Ward-trained duo of #9 Lucci (3-1) and #10 Nakatomi (5-1) likely to both fire from the gate. Sire is a Flying Childers (G2)-winning son of Kodiac.
This field obviously much stronger, but if he can reproduce that kick over potentially softer ground, and with the likely aid of a strong pace, he could run a big race at a price for Richard Fahey. #12 PERFECT POWER (15-1) wheels back on very short rest after an eye-catching maiden win second out at Hamilton on June 9, where he produced an impressive quick burst and smoothly drew off against an overmatched group. However, it doesn't appear as if there will be significant surprises in many of the longer features on Thursday regardless of surface condition. Course conditions will undoubtedly be worse Friday than Thursday, but the extent to which the rain will affect the course in time for Thursday's racing would be pure conjecture at this writing, which makes handicapping selections some 40 hours ahead of time rather challenging. Of course, you still have to evaluate what your goal should be, and I would say that being 10 seconds per mile off of what you think you should be running despite temps being around 60 is not overly encouraging.The weather is forecast to change for the worse for Days 3 and 4 at Royal Ascot on Thursday and Friday. The good news is that if you get a crisp day up in Minnesota the difference in perceived effort will be off of the charts, even accounting for race day magic. At ages 42 and 43, I trained through the summers with only slight negative impacts on my workout times but at age 46, my workout times and summer race performances were significantly impacted - 7-10 seconds per mile as compared to summer training at ages 42 and 43, and that was despite ultimately running a small PR at age 46 on marathon race day. I have found that the impact of heat and humidity has actually changed for the worse for me over time, which is another indicator that rules of thumb here are not particularly useful. More directly to your point, heat and humidity impact everyone differently, so it will be tough for anyone to give you a good "seconds per mile" estimate of the weather's impact on you. But I'm just not convinced.įWIW, I am shooting for a 3:05 in Duluth and am 5.5 weeks out.Īs a guy who has trained through three Central Florida summers for fall marathons, I agree with everyone else - what you are experiencing simply isn't all that bad. But the Hanson calculator says I should slow 8-15 seconds per mile because of heat. Last fall I wouldn't have been happy with that second workout as Daniels Tempo pace is about 6:36 for me. First set split was 6:49, second set 6:38. Today I did a 2x3 tempo workout with 3.5 jog between. I found a Hanson calculator that makes adjustments for heat/humidity, but I am wondering if anyone else has had this experience or success in running a faster race than workouts showed because workouts were slowed by weather?Īs an example, on Saturday I ran 16 miles with the last 10 of them at 7:06 pace. While temps have actually been mild the last week or two, it's been much harder than in the fall to hit some of my goal pieces. After only running winter marathons for the last several years, I am training through a south Texas spring for Grandmas next month.
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